With Election Day on November 3 just three days away, Texas, long the very symbol of a “red state,” looks anything but settled. Several races in a state Republicans have won year after year are now close contests.
The Race Most Worth Watching: Governor
The marquee matchup is the governor’s race. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a historic fourth term, faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. In a late-October poll, Abbott held a narrow 49% to 46% lead. A poll in early September had the two tied at 47%, with Hinojosa ahead among Hispanic voters.
Still, it would be premature to read these numbers as a coming upset. Joshua Blank of the Texas Politics Project observed that even in a difficult national environment for Republicans, Abbott has kept a Republican advantage of around six points. The gap has narrowed, but a close race is not the same as a reversal.
The contest ultimately comes down to the cost of living.
- Abbott: He is campaigning on eliminating school district property taxes for homestead owners, and he has promised a moratorium on new data centers.
- Hinojosa: She says she would pay for property tax relief by ending corporate giveaways. Public school funding and data center accountability are also central to her platform.
The attacks have been fierce on both sides. Abbott’s campaign put $12 million into ads claiming Hinojosa voted for higher property taxes more than 40 times, which she denies. A local fact-check shows that claims from both camps need context.
The Senate Race Is Tight, Too
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton. A University of Houston poll had Talarico ahead 48% to 46%, while CBS News called the race a toss-up. It is likely to come down to turnout.
Even So, the Big Picture for the Texas Economy Is Bright
However the political map shifts, the strength of the Texas economy doesn’t hinge on any one party or candidate. It rests on a diversified base that spans energy, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, finance, logistics, and health care, along with a steady inflow of people and businesses.
It hasn’t all been smooth sailing. The Dallas Fed described 2025 employment as flat, with tariffs and reduced immigration playing a role. But this year has brought a rebound. As of June, year-to-date job growth had reached 1.9%, close to the long-run average of 2%. In April, the Dallas Fed issued an upbeat forecast of roughly 280,000 new jobs this year, and the Perryman Group expects growth to continue through 2027.
The AI data center boom has added a new engine of growth. How fast, and under what rules, that industry expands may depend on the election. But the fact that power, water, and tax burdens are now headline issues shows how big it has become. Whether Abbott wins a fourth term or Hinojosa delivers a change in leadership, the next governor’s task looks much the same: protect growth while easing the strain on household budgets.
Final Thoughts
We won’t know the results until after November 3. What is already clear is where voters’ attention lies: housing costs, property taxes, schools, and electric bills. How the winners handle those issues will shape the next chapter of Texas’s growth, and the economy that stage is built on remains sturdy.
Peter Yang